Astronomical Prediction Based on Patterns

This page will demonstrate that prediction in astronomy is based solely on patterns in the sky. Celestial events come in patterns and trends. By analyzing the patterns of past behaviors from historic tables it is possible to create an equation that will predict a future event. This is how prediction in astronomy has been performed for thousands of years, and how it is still performed today.

=Ancient Astronomy=

Ancient Babylonians
Astronomy for Physical Science - Cal State Long Beach (Archive)

Mathematical Thought from Ancient to Modern Times: Volume One

=Modern Astronomy=

Description and Function
Gravitation Vs. Relativity Charles Lane Poor, Ph.D. (bio) Professor Emeritus of Celestial Mechanics, Columbia University Full Text Link

Motion of the Planets p.132

Motion of the Planets p.138

Use in Astronomical Almanacs
From the Wikipedia section on Special Perturbations (Archive):

General Application
Perturbation methods are, in fact, prevalent in many areas of science. From Perturbations in Complex Molecular Systems (Archive) we read the following:

The Wikipedia article on Perturbation Theory (Archive) echoes the same:

The book Approximate Analytical Methods for Solving Ordinary Differential Equations states on p.65 (Archive):

History
The Wikipedia article on Perturbation Theory also provides a history:

University of Toronto Quarterly
At the end of the 19th century, long after Copernicus, Kepler and Newton's contributions to astronomy, we read about the state of astronomy in University of Toronto Quarterly (1895):

VSOP
VSOP (French: Variations Séculaires des Orbites Planétaires) is a popular software package used to generate planetary ephemeris, which are the positions of the planetary objects in the sky. It is used in astronomy software such as Stellarium and Celestia. It has been alleged that VSOP uses a geometric RET model to make its predictions, and so VSOP and the astronomy software which uses it is therefore a validation of the theory. On assessment we find, however, that VSOP is based on the ancient pattern methods of epicycles and perturbations:

Comparing VSOP to the Ptolemaic System
The following is left by an editor on VSOP's Wikipedia Talk Page (Archive):

Comments from Celestia Developers
Celestia Developers comment on the large number of planet-specific terms used in computing positions:

https://celestia.space/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8285 (Archive)

https://celestia.space/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=2592 (Archive)

Replacing the Foundations of Astronomy
In Replacing the Foundations of Astronomy (Archive) its author Dr. Gopi Krishna Vijaya (bio) gives us a historic overview of the foundations of Astronomy. He describes that perturbations are epicycles, and that they are used in astronomy to 'make the observations fit' the theory:

Epicycles Once More

Perturbation Search
A search for 'perturbation' on nasa.gov shows that perturbations are used widely for many applications, including heavy use in celestial mechanics.

https://www.google.com/search?&q=perturbation+site:nasa.gov

No. of Results: 56,000

Motion of the Planets
A work on by Dr. Hannes Alfvén (bio) titled Evolution of the Solar System (1976) shows that epicycles are still in use in celestial mechanics, more than 365 years after Kepler's discovery of elliptical orbits. Dr. Alfvén uses a combination of Kepler and epicycles:

https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19770006016.pdf

https://history.nasa.gov/SP-345/contents.htm

The Motion of Planets and Satellites

3.1 The guiding-center approximation of celestial mechanics 3.2 Circular orbits 3.3 Oscillations modifying the circular orbit

p.40



"FIGURE 3.3.1.—The guiding-center method of approximating the Kepler motion. The guiding center moves with constant velocity along the dashed circle of radius r0 in the center of which the gravitating mass Mc is situated. The body M moves in an “epicycle” around the guiding center. The epicycle is an ellipse with the axis ratio 2/1 and semiminor axis of er0. The epicycle motion is retrograde. The resulting motion of M is an ellipse which almost coincides with the undashed circle which has its center at O. The distance from O to Mc is er0. The position of the pericenter is given by Φp. The difference between the undashed circle and the exact Kepler ellipse is really less than the thickness of the line."

Galactic Dynamics
Lindblad’s epicycles – valid method or bad science?

https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0911/0911.1594.pdf

Britannica
Encyclopedia Britannica says:

https://www.britannica.com/science/celestial-mechanics-physics

Quotes
R. J. Morrison, F.A.S.L., R.N., in his "New Principia," says:

Sir Richard Phillips in his Million Facts (Archive) reports:

The Eclipses
In Chapter 11 of Earth Not a Globe (Archive) its author gives us an overview of the eclipse calculations:

— Samuel Birley Rowbotham

Rowbotham provides pattern-based equations for finding the time, magnitude, and duration of the Lunar Eclipse at the end of Chapter 11.

Royal Astronomer Robert Ball
The Royal Astronomer Sir Robert Ball, in his work The Story of the Heavens (Archive), on page 58, told us:

Sommerville
Somerville in Physical Sciences pg. 46 states:

Earth Review
T.G. Ferguson in the Earth Review for September 1894, says:

NASA Eclipse Website
Website URL: https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov

If one visits NASA's eclipse website they will find that NASA explains eclipse prediction through the ancient Saros Cycle, rather than the Three Body Problem of astronomy.

From Resources -> Eclipses and the Saros (Archive) we read a description of the Saros Cycle:

The reader is encouraged to visit NASA's eclipse website and count how many times the Saros Cycle is mentioned, and then count how many times the Three Body Problem is mentioned.

Google Search Term: "saros" site:https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov

No. of Results: 13,700

Google Search Term: "three body" site:https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov

No. of Results: 2 (duplicate text)

From the result:

The Three Body Problem refers to the greatest problem in the history of astronomy. It is the inability of science to simulate or recreate a model of the Sun-Earth-Moon system. It is for this reason that pattern-based methods must be used for prediction in astronomy.

A Text-Book of Astronomy
Read any astronomy textbook and the same will be seen:

A TEXT-BOOK OF ASTRONOMY by George C. Comstock Director of the Washburn Observatory and Professor of Astronomy in the University of Wisconson

Full Text Link (Archive)

p.116



(Click to Enlarge)

One should notice that there is nothing in the book about the three body problem, the geometry of the sun-earth-moon system, or Newton's equations as being the basis for the eclipse predictions.

=See Also=


 * The Three Body Problem