Orbital Mechanics Cannot Predict The Solar System

It has been asserted many times, and with great insistence that astronomers can predict the positions of the bodies in the Solar System for any given time with the Round Earth Theory of the Solar System, and because of this, it is powerful evidence that the system of the Round Earth Theory is true. Kepler's Laws of Planetary Motion, with other Celestial Mechanics equations and resources, are presented as undeniable fact. They are presented to us that way in school, and so, it must be true.

The system of the Round Earth Theory has been verified and validated through astronomical and mathematical prediction, as the story goes, and anyone who dares speak a word otherwise is a fool.

Avid readers of history and astronomy, however, will know that this is not how astronomers predict the location of bodies in the sky. The bodies are not predicted based on any heliocentric construct of the solar system and orbits. Prediction in astronomy is based solely on patterns in the sky. Celestial events come in patterns and trends. By analyzing the patterns from past behaviors from historic tables it is possible to create an equation that will predict a future event. This is how prediction in astronomy has been performed for thousands of years, and how it is still performed today.

Thomas Winship provides the following—

"Sir Richard Phillips in his Million Facts, says, 'Nothing therefore can be more impertinent than the assertion of modern writers that the accuracy of astronomical predictions arises from any modern theory. Astronomy is strictly a science of observation, and far more indebted to the false theory of Astrology, than to the equally false and fanciful theory of any modern.

We find that four or five thousand years ago, the mean motion of the Sun, Moon and Planets were known to a second, just as at present, and the moon's nodes, the latitudes of the planets, &c., were all adopted by Astrologers in preparing horoscopes for any time past or present. Ephemerides of the planet's places, of eclipses, &c., have been published for above 600 years, and were at first nearly as precise as at present.'"

The above quote speaks for itself.

It may come as a shock to learn that Celestial Mechanics cannot actually predict the placement of any body in the solar system at all. The many computer software applications that predict the locations of the planets are not doing so based on orbital motions in a heliocentric system. They are unable to.

We will look at works which explain why Celestial Mechanics cannot predict. Who better to consult than those who have labored to predict with the system?

Modern Celestial Mechanics
MODERN CELESTIAL MECHANICS Aspects of Solar System Dynamics By Alessandro Morbidelli, PhD PDF Link This book begins its introduction by describing Celestial Mechanics as a wonderful and successful tool for the theory of the structure and evolution of the Solar System.

From the first sentence:

After the triumphing the success of theory to predict theory, the author, a Mathematician, provides a background on Celestial Mechanics and its ability to predict.

We are informed reader that Celestial Mechanics is not, and has not been, successful at predicting the positions of planets.

A further definition is given for "chaotic":

Another description:

Chaos and the Solar System
The history of prediction in the solar system and the issue of chaos is provided in the following work by Paul Trow.

Chaos and the Solar System by Paul Trow Article Link

The author goes on, describing that the motion of planetary systems has been an issue for a long time.

The mathematician and theoretical physicist Henri Poincaré was instrumental in showcasing the challenges of celestial mechanics:

The article continues:

The Best of the Best
To demonstrate the state-of-the-art methods for computing the motion of bodies in Celestial Mechanics, poliastro, an astrodynamics software developer, has shared this beautiful plot of several numerical methods for the restricted three body problem when applied to the Earth-Moon-Sun system taken from Harier et al. Solving Ordinary Differential Equations I.

When the three body problem solutions in Celestial Mechanics are applied to model the movement of the Moon in the Earth-Moon-Sun system we get the following:



Arenstorf orbits are the knotted closed trajectories which are the result of restricted three-body problem solutions.

Conclusion
As we have read, it is well admitted that Celestial Mechanics is not, and cannot, be used for the prediction of bodies in the solar system. The idea that it is used with success in astronomy software, and that astronomy books have the prediction of bodies in the heliocentric system pinned down to be able to predict bodies into the future is, to say the least, misinformed. Celestial prediction software such as Stellarium are not "Round Earth" or "Heliocentric" prediction tools. The efforts of hundreds of mathematicians and astronomers over thousands of years, from the early beginnings, have failed again and again to predict motion and positions in that system. It is an embarrassing stain on the whole of astronomy, mathematics, and classical mechanics. The above works call the inability to predict "chaos," but from this it takes little effort to transition into a questioning of the system and the science itself.

The Emerald City of prediction-proof that is used to showcase the factual reality of the Round Earth system, and its beauty, is revealed to be little more than a facade. When the Wizard's glasses are removed the city is no more green than any other city. The proprietor is handing out phony diplomas from his palace, and what surrounds the story is a dark secret.

The following comment left on our forum on this topic is succinct:

From the failure of theory to meet observation of reality, we are reminded of the following words by Samuel Birley Rowbotham:

See Also:

 * NOAA Solar Calculator